Macro factors were mixed with bearish fundamentals, and the most-traded BC copper contract eventually fell 0.53% [SMM BC Copper Review]

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract opened at 71,080 yuan/mt and closed higher. In the night session, BC copper fluctuated upward after opening, touched a high of 71,450 yuan/mt, then maintained a fluctuating trend. After the daytime session opened, the center of copper prices moved downward, touching a low of 70,610 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 70,780 yuan/mt, down 380 yuan/mt, a drop of 0.53%. Open interest fell to 4,516 lots, down 16 lots from the previous trading day. Trading volume dropped to 4,888 lots, down 1,473 lots from the previous session. On the macro front, multiple US Fed officials paved the way for an interest rate cut this month, coupled with the Beige Book showing signs of economic weakness due to tariffs, supporting copper prices. However, OPEC+ is considering another oil production increase at Sunday's meeting, with international crude oil prices falling, weighing on copper prices. On the supply side, social inventory of copper cathode increased by 8,500 mt to 140,600 mt as of today, with some replenishment of imported supply. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness remained weak as copper prices surged during the day.

SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 79,770 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2509 contract price of 70,780 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 79,981 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -211 yuan/mt between the SHFE copper 2510 contract and the BC copper contract. The inverted spread persisted but narrowed slightly.